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Global Warming News: Carbon Emissions Falling |
| By Christopher Flavin
For the first time since 1993, global emissions of carbon from the combustion of fossil fuels declined last year, falling 0.5 percent to 6.32 billion tons, according to new estimates by the Worldwatch Institute.
This decline in emissions in the face of a world economy that expanded 2.5 percent in 1998 suggests an accelerated "de-linking" of economic expansion from carbon emissions, undercutting arguments that reducing emissions will damage the economy. During the past two years, the global economy has grown by 6.8 percent, while carbon emissions held steady, leading to an impressive 6.4 percent decrease in the amount of carbon emissions required to produce $1,000 of income.
Carbon dioxide is a byproduct of the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas, and is the chief contributor to global climate change. The decline in emissions in 1998 is a sign that it may be less difficult to slow global warming under the Kyoto Protocol than has been assumed by some industry groups, including, most recently, the Business Roundtable. The recent decline in emissions stems in part from improved energy efficiency and from falling coal use, spurred by new efficiency standards and the removal of energy subsidies. Also, much of the economic growth of the last two years has come in information technologies and services, sectors that are not major energy users. Contrary to the implication of a recent Forbes article, operating the entire global Internet requires less electricity than New York City uses. Meanwhile, industries such as steel making and other resource-intensive sectors are growing more slowly. According to new projections by the U.S. Department of Energy, emissions from former Eastern bloc nations will still be 28 percent below the 1990 level in 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol, this 374 million tons of so-called "hot air" may be sold to other countries-at a projected annual bill of between $4 and $8 billion. The de-linking of carbon emissions from economic growth is most clearly seen in China, the world's second largest emitter. Its economy grew 7.2 percent in 1998, while emissions dropped 3.7 percent, following a smaller decline the previous year. This compares with a steady 4 percent annual increase in China's emissions in the previous two decades. The reasons for the sharp cut in China's emissions are not fully known, but one factor is a recent $14 billion cut in its coal subsidies. Also notable is the fact that emissions in former Eastern bloc countries are still declining a full decade after their economic transformation began. Poland's emissions fell 9.7 percent in 1998, while the economy grew 6 percent. Russia's emissions also declined, and are now 24 percent below the 1991 level.
**Change from 1992. Indications of a de-linking of carbon emissions and economic growth were also evident in the United States in 1998, which saw emissions increase 0.4 percent while the economy grew 3.9 percent. Still, U.S. emissions in 1998 were 10.3 percent above its 1990 levels. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the United States is supposed to reduce its total greenhouse gas emissions to 7 percent below the 1990 level by 2010. Other industrial countries are having greater success in restraining their emissions. Japan's 1998 emissions were only 5.6 percent above the 1990 level, while European Union emissions were less than 1 percent above the 1990 level-due in part to declining coal use in Germany and the United Kingdom. Slower growth in carbon emissions will make it slightly easier to achieve the ambitious goals of the Kyoto Protocol. However, to reach those targets, and to reduce emissions in developing countries, accelerated adoption of new energy technologies will be needed. Recent double-digit growth rates for solar and wind technologies, and the imminent commercialization of hydrogen fuel cells, herald a new, less-carbon-intensive energy system in the early 21st century. However, the pace of development will be heavily influenced by government decisions on fossil fuel subsidies and taxes, and on the rate of adoption of market incentives for new energy technologies. Already, the U.S. Department of Energy's 1999 projection that global carbon emissions will grow at 1.3 percent annually through 2010 is off-track. It is likely that government forecasters and scientific bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will now have to revise their projections downward. Christopher Flavin is Senior Vice President and Energy Analyst at the Worldwatch Institute, an environmental think tank located in Washington, D.C. |
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