Mainers split on Nov. 3 marriage vote

Maine voters are split 48 percent to 48 percent on Question 1, the measure on the Nov. 3 ballot that would use the state’s “people’s veto” to stop the new law that legalized same-sex marriage from taking effect.

The remainder of those questioned in a new Public Policy Polling survey said they were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Seventy-four percent of Republicans plan to vote yes, which would block same-sex marriage. Only 25 percent of Democrats said they will vote yes. Fifty percent of independents oppose Question 1 and 44 percent support it.

Older voters support the measure 54 percent to 40 percent, and there is a 10-point gender gap: 53 percent of men but only 43 percent of women plan to block gay couples from marrying.

The poll also found a race gap. Forty-nine percent of whites support same-sex marriage, with 47 percent opposed. Nonwhites, however, support depriving gays of marriage by a margin of 55 percent to 35 percent. According to census.gov, Maine is 96.4 percent white. Ninety-three percent of the 1,130 people polled were white.

“The fate of Question 1 is going to be decided by which side does a better job of mobilizing their supporters to get out and vote,” said Public Polling President Dean Debnam. “Voters in the state know where they stand on the issue and now it’s just an issue of who shows up.”

Meanwhile, the TV ad war continues. The anti-gay-marriage side has continued to hammer away with the same campaign that worked with Proposition 8 in California, warning voters that if same-sex marriage is legal, schoolchildren will be subjected to inappropriate lessons on gay topics.

State Education Commissioner Susan Gendron asked state Attorney General Janet Mills to look into that claim and, on Oct. 15, Mills reported: “I have scoured Maine laws relating to the education of its children for any references to marriage in the public school curricula. I have found none.”

The pro-gay-marriage side’s TV ads reflect a degree of awareness of what went wrong for the gay side in the California Prop 8 battle.

Unlike in California, the gay side’s TV ads in Maine portray gay people and gay families. The gay side’s Maine campaign also is responding to the charges in the anti-gay side’s ads much more quickly than the No on 8 campaign did in California.

Nonetheless, in the blogosphere and on campaign-related mailing lists, there are routine expressions of concern over whether the gay side’s ads are “hard-hitting” enough to neutralize the opponents’ tactics. There also is concern that the anti-gay side is driving the discourse, with the gay side placed in the position of responding to charges rather than proactively presenting its own case.

But NO on 1/Protect Maine Equality Campaign Manager Jesse Connolly says he believes the gay campaign is on the right track.

“We feel really confident about where this campaign is headed,” he told The Rachel Maddow Show on Oct. 20. “We feel that the combination of our field effort that’s been going on for the past year and the paid media that we’ve been pushing will really sort of make sure that Maine voters understand just how critical it is to vote no this November 3rd.”

Same-sex marriage is legal in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts and Vermont, and it becomes legal in New Hampshire in January. If Question 1 fails, it will become legal in Maine immediately. Same-sex marriage was legal for 4 1/2 months in California in 2008 until voters amended the state constitution to re-ban it. Gay couples also can marry in Belgium, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, South Africa and Sweden.

By Rex Wockner